• No results found

Technical Report on Water Quantity and Quality in Europe: an integrated economic and environmental assessment | RIVM

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2021

Share "Technical Report on Water Quantity and Quality in Europe: an integrated economic and environmental assessment | RIVM"

Copied!
59
0
0

Bezig met laden.... (Bekijk nu de volledige tekst)

Hele tekst

(1)research for man and environment. RIJKSINSTITUUT VOOR VOLKSGEZONDHEID EN MILIEU NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF PUBLIC HEALTH AND THE ENVIRONMENT. RIVM report 481505016 Technical Report on Water Quantity and Quality in Europe: an integrated economic and environmental assessment B.J.de Haan, A. Beusen, C. Sedee, D.W. Pearce, A. Howarth May 2000. This Report has been prepared by RIVM, EFTEC, NTUA and IIASA in association with TME and TNO under contract with the Environment Directorate-General of the European Commission.. RIVM, P.O. Box 1, 3720 BA Bilthoven, telephone: 31 - 30 - 274 91 11; telefax: 31 - 30 - 274 29 71.

(2) 3DJHRI. 5,90UHSRUW. $EVWUDFW 7KHHFRQRPLFDVVHVVPHQWRISULRULWLHVIRUD(XURSHDQHQYLURQPHQWDOSROLF\SODQIRFXVHVRQWZHOYHLGHQWLILHG 3URPLQHQW (XURSHDQ (QYLURQPHQWDO 3UREOHPV VXFK DV FOLPDWH FKDQJH FKHPLFDO ULVNV DQG ELRGLYHUVLW\ 7KH VWXG\FRPPLVVLRQHGE\WKH(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ '*(QYLURQPHQW

(3) WRD(XURSHDQFRQVRUWLXPOHGE\5,90 SURYLGHV D EDVLV IRU SULRULW\ VHWWLQJ IRU (XURSHDQ HQYLURQPHQWDO SROLF\ SODQQLQJ LQ VXSSRUW RI WKH VL[WK (QYLURQPHQWDO$FWLRQ3URJUDPPHDVIROORZXSRIWKHFXUUHQWILIWK(QYLURQPHQWDO$FWLRQ3ODQFDOOHGµ7RZDUGV 6XVWDLQDELOLW\¶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

(5) 5,90UHSRUW. 3DJHRI. 7KLVUHSRUWLVRQHRIDVHULHVVXSSRUWLQJWKHPDLQUHSRUW(XURSHDQ(QYLURQPHQWDO3ULRULWLHVDQ,QWHJUDWHG (FRQRPLFDQG(QYLURQPHQWDO$VVHVVPHQW5HSRUWVLQWKLVVHULHVKDYHEHHQVXEMHFWWROLPLWHGSHHUUHYLHZ 7KHUHSRUWFRQVLVWVRIWKUHHSDUWV. 6HFWLRQ (QYLURQPHQWDODVVHVVPHQW 3UHSDUHGE\%-GH+DDQ$%HXVHQ 5,90

(6) &6HGHH 70(

(7) 6HFWLRQ %HQHILWDVVHVVPHQW 3UHSDUHGE\':3HDUFH$+RZDUWK ()7(&

(8) 6HFWLRQ 3ROLF\DVVHVVPHQW 3UHSDUHGE\':3HDUFH$+RZDUWK ()7(&

(9) 7KHUHDUHVXSSRUWLQJ$QQH[HVWKDWSUHVHQWDGGLWLRQDOLQIRUPDWLRQRIWKHPHWKRGRORJ\DQGGDWD $:DWHUVXSSO\DQGVHFWRUDOGHPDQG %:DVWHZDWHUWUHDWPHQW &0HDVXUHWRUHVWULFWDQLPDOKXVEDQGU\WRFDUU\LQJFDSDFLW\ '0HWKDQHHPLVVLRQUHGXFWLRQVLQDJULFXOWXUH $QQH[(GHPRQVWUDWHVWKHLPSDFWRIWKHSROLFLHVFRQWDLQHGLQWKHEDVHOLQHRQWKHSRWHQWLDOQLWUDWHFRQFHQWUDWLRQ LQ(XURSH¶VFRDVWDO]RQHV 3UHSDUHGE\%-GH+DDQ$%HXVHQ 5,90

(10) &6HGHH 70(

(11) 5HIHUHQFHVPDGHLQWKHVHFWLRQVRQEHQHILWDQGSROLF\SDFNDJHVKDYHEHHQEURXJKWWRJHWKHULQWKH7HFKQLFDO 5HSRUWRQ0HWKRGRORJ\&RVW%HQHILW$QDO\VLVDQG3ROLF\5HVSRQVHV7KHUHIHUHQFHVPDGHLQWKHVHFWLRQRQ HQYLURQPHQWDODVVHVVPHQWIROORZVDWWKHHQGRIVHFWLRQ 7KHILQGLQJVFRQFOXVLRQVUHFRPPHQGDWLRQVDQGYLHZVH[SUHVVHGLQWKLVUHSRUWUHSUHVHQWWKRVHRIWKHDXWKRUV DQGGRQRWQHFHVVDULO\FRLQFLGHZLWKWKRVHRIWKH(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQVHUYLFHV.

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

(13) 5,90UHSRUW.    . 3DJHRI. (IILFLHQF\FULWHULRQ $GPLQLVWUDWLYHFRPSOH[LW\ (TXLW\FULWHULRQ -XULVGLFWLRQDOFULWHULRQ. $SSHQGLFHVWHFKQLFDOGRFXPHQWDWLRQRIWKHPHWKRGRORJ\DQGWDEOHVZLWK0HPEHU6WDWHVSHFLILF LQIRUPDWLRQ $QQH[$ :DWHUVXSSO\DQGVHFWRUDOGHPDQGLQWKH(8 $QQH[% :DVWHZDWHUWUHDWPHQW $QQH[& $QLPDO+XVEDQGU\ $QQH[' 0HWKDQH(PLVVLRQ5HGXFWLRQV $QQH[( &RDVWDO=RQHV.          .

(14) 3DJHRI. 5,90UHSRUW.

(15) 5,90UHSRUW. 3DJHRI.  (QYLURQPHQWDODVVHVVPHQW  ,QWURGXFWLRQ +XPDQDFWLYLWLHVDUHSODFLQJVHYHUHSUHVVXUHVRQ(XURSH¶VZDWHUUHVRXUFHV,QFUHDVLQJGHPDQGDGYHUVHFOLPDWH FRQGLWLRQVDQGLQFUHDVLQJSUREOHPVRISROOXWLRQKDYHIRFXVHGJRYHUQPHQWV¶DWWHQWLRQRQKRZ ZDWHUUHVRXUFHV DUHPDQDJHG(XURSHQHHGVWRHQVXUHWKDWDVWDEOHVXSSO\RIFOHDQZDWHUPHHWVERWKWKHQHHGVRIVRFLHW\DQGWKH QDWXUDOHQYLURQPHQW7KHUHDUHWKUHHPDLQWKUHDWVWRWKHTXDOLW\RIWKHVXSSOLHGZDWHU œ :DWHUDEVWUDFWLRQPD\FDXVHSUREOHPVZLWKUHVSHFWWRORZIORZVLQULYHUVORZHULQJJURXQGZDWHUWDEOHVLQ QDWXUHDUHDVDQGVDOWZDWHULQWUXVLRQLQFRDVWDODUHDV7KHVXEVHTXHQWORQJWLPHORVVRIJURXQGZDWHUDVD QDWXUDOUHVRXUFHDIIHFWVGULQNLQJZDWHUVXSSO\VRLOTXDOLW\DQGELRGLYHUVLW\ œ *URXQG ZDWHU LV SROOXWHG E\ QLWURJHQ DQG SHVWLFLGHV OHDNLQJ WKURXJK WKH URRW ]RQH RI WKH VRLO /RQJ UHVLGHQFHWLPHVPDNHQLWURJHQSROOXWLRQQRZDULVNIRUGULQNLQJZDWHURIIXWXUHJHQHUDWLRQV œ $OVR 7KH FRQGLWLRQ RI VXUIDFH ZDWHUV GHWHULRUDWHG DV PDQLIHVWHG E\ DOJDH JURZWK SHULRGV RI R[\JHQ GHILFLWVILVKNLOOVHWF,QPDQ\DUHDVWKLVSRRUHQYLURQPHQWDOFRQGLWLRQLVDWWULEXWDEOHWRHQKDQFHGQLWURJHQ DQG SKRVSKRUXV ORDGLQJ *HQHUDOO\ SKRVSKDWH H[FHVV GLVWRUWV WKH HFRV\VWHPV LQ LQODQG ZDWHUV ZKLOH QLWURJHQ H[FHVV GDPDJHV HFRV\VWHPV LQ PDULQH ZDWHUV (XWURSKLFDWLRQ RI LQODQG DQG PDULQH ZDWHUV ZDV LGHQWLILHGLQWKH'REULV$VVHVVPHQW (($

(16) DVDPDMRU(XURSHDQHQYLURQPHQWDOLVVXH 7KLV7HFKQLFDO5HSRUWDQDO\VHVWKHSRWHQWLDORIQHZSROLF\PHDVXUHVIRUZDWHUPDQDJHPHQWDW(8OHYHO+HUH WKHDVVHVVPHQWRIZDWHUPDQDJHPHQWFRQVLVWVRIDQDO\VLQJWKHSRWHQWLDOIRUUHGXFLQJWKHSUHVVXUHV$WILUVWWKH H[LVWLQJ SROLF\ PHDVXUHV ZLOO EH GHVFULEHG LQ WKH EDVHOLQH %/

(17)  DVVHVVPHQW 7KH (($ KDV SXEOLVKHG WKLV DVVHVVPHQW LQ WKH 6WDWH RI WKH (QYLURQPHQW 5HSRUW (($ 

(18)  1H[W LW LV DUJXHG WKDW QR JHQHULF HPLVVLRQ UHGXFWLRQ WDUJHWV FDQ EH VHW DV WKH HFRORJLFDO FRQVWUDLQWV IRU ZDWHU PDQDJHPHQW YDU\ LQ (XURSH &RPSDUDEOH GDWDDUHODFNLQJ+HQFHD7HFKQRORJ\'ULYHQVFHQDULR 7'

(19) DQG$FFHOHUDWHG3ROLFLHVVFHQDULR $3

(20) DVVHVVPHQW KDYHQRWEHHQFDUULHGRXW7KH FRQFOXVLRQV VHFWLRQILQDOLVHVWKHVHFWLRQ &RDVWDO]RQHZDWHUTXDOLW\LVRQO\UHIOHFWHGWKURXJKWKHDQDO\VLVRIQXWULHQWRYHUORDGE\GLIIXVHDQGSRLQW VRXUFHVWRULYHUVDQGDWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQ$QQH[(GHPRQVWUDWHVWKHLPSDFWRIWKHSROLFLHVFRQWDLQHGLQWKH EDVHOLQHRQWKHSRWHQWLDOQLWUDWHFRQFHQWUDWLRQLQ(XURSH¶VFRDVWDO]RQHV.  (QYLURQPHQWDOWUHQGVDQGDEDWHPHQWFRVW 3UREOHPVNHWFK '36,5

(21) DQGUHODWHGHFRQRPLFVHFWRUV 7KHXQGHUO\LQJIDFWRULQZDWHUVWUHVVSUREOHPVLVWKHDEVHQFHRIRZQHUOLDELOLW\IRUVXUIDFHDQGJURXQGZDWHU $JULFXOWXUHLVUHVSRQVLEOHIRUGLIIXVHSROOXWLRQWKURXJKUXQRIIZDWHUFDUU\LQJ PDQXUHDQGDUWLILFLDO IHUWLOLVHUV 12DQG32

(22) WKDWKDYHQRWEHHQFRQVXPHGE\WKHFURSVHQWHULQJWKHPDLQVWUHDPVDQGJURXQGZDWHU$OVR DPPRQLD 1+

(23)  HYDSRUDWHG IURP DQLPDO PDQXUH LV GHSRVLWHG GRZQZLQG XSVHWWLQJ IUDJLOH  PRVWO\ IRUHVW  HFRV\VWHPV8UEDQKRXVHKROGVDQGLQGXVWULHV IHHG ZDVWHZDWHUWUHDWPHQWSODQWV ZKLFK GHVSLWH WKH HIIRUWV WR UHPRYHSROOXWDQWVHPLW%2'&2'12DQG32LQWRVXUIDFH ZDWHU7KHLPSDFWRIWKHWUDQVSRUWVHFWRUYLD 12[HPLVVLRQDQGGHSRVLWLRQLVRIPLQRULPSRUWDQFH (XUREDURPHWHUUDQNVZDWHUPDQDJHPHQWDVRQHRIWKHWKUHHPRVWVHULRXVHQYLURQPHQWDOSUREOHPV([SHUWVFLWH ZDWHU PDQDJHPHQW DOVR DV D VHULRXV SUREOHP 6RXWK (XURSHDQ FRXQWULHV UDQN µZDWHU VFDUFLW\ DQG SROOXWLRQ¶ ILUVW0RVWSUREDEO\WKLVUHIOHFWV ZDWHUDYDLODELOLW\UDWKHUWKDQSROOXWLRQ,WLVUDQNHG ILIWKE\1RUWK(XURSHDQ FRXQWULHV.

(24) 3DJHRI. 5,90UHSRUW.  %DVHOLQHDVVHVVPHQW $W (8 OHYHO WKH 8UEDQ :DVWH:DWHU 'LUHFWLYH DQG WKH 1LWUDWHV 'LUHFWLYH FUHDWH VWURQJ LQFHQWLYHV IRU WKH 0HPEHU6WDWHVWRSUHYHQWH[FHVVLYHQXWULHQWORDGLQJRIWKHDTXDWLFHQYLURQPHQW+RZHYHUWKHLPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI WKHVH GLUHFWLYHV LV EHKLQG VFKHGXOH DQG VKRXOG EH DFFHOHUDWHG 7KH QDWXUH RI WKH GLUHFWLYHV LV GLVFXVVHG EHORZ7KHSURSRVHG)UDPHZRUNZDWHU'LUHFWLYHKDVEHHQH[FOXGHGIURPWKH%DVHOLQHDVVHVVPHQW )XOOFRPSOLDQFHZLWKWKH8UEDQ:DVWH:DWHU7UHDWPHQW'LUHFWLYHDVDVVXPHGLQWKH%DVH/LQHE\ZLOO UHPRYH PRVWRIWKHSUREOHPVRIVXUIDFH ZDWHUSROOXWLRQE\ ZDVWHZDWHU7KHSROLF\WDUJHWLV WR EH PHW LQ WKH %DVH/LQHQRDGGLWLRQDOWDUJHWVKDYHEHHQVHW$VQRVXIILFLHQWLQIRUPDWLRQZDVDYDLODEOHRQWKHDUHDGHVLJQDWHG DV VHQVLWLYH E\ WKH 0HPEHU 6WDWHV WKH DVVHVVPHQW DVVXPHV WKDW WKH ZKROH (8 WHUULWRU\ LV VHQVLWLYH WR HXWURSKLFDWLRQDQGWKHVHYHUHVWUHTXLUHPHQWVRIWKH8UEDQ:DVWH:DWHU7UHDWPHQW'LUHFWLYHDSSO\ 7KH(81LWUDWHV'LUHFWLYHOLPLWVWKHGLVSRVDORIPDQXUHRQDJULFXOWXUDOODQGWRNJ1KDWRSURWHFWJURXQG ZDWHUDQGVXUIDFHZDWHUTXDOLW\'HVSLWHWKLV'LUHFWLYHWKHSULQFLSDOGULYLQJIRUFHRIQXWULHQWVSROOXWLRQUHPDLQV LQWHQVLYH DQLPDO KXVEDQGU\ DQG SDUWLFXODUO\ WKH SLJV DQG SRXOWU\ VHFWRU ZKLFK LV FRQFHQWUDWHG DW VSHFLDOLVHG IDUPV LQ WKH UHJLRQV RI 1LHGHUVDFKVHQ 1RUGUKHLQ:HVWIDOHQ WKH 1HWKHUODQGV )ODQGHUV %UHWDJQH &DWDOXQD DQG/RPEDUG\7KHVKDUHRISLJVDQGSRXOWU\LQWKHVHµKRWVSRWV¶RILQWHQVLYHOLYHVWRFNSURGXFWLRQH[FHHGV RI WRWDO DQLPDOV 7DEOH & LQ WKH $QQH[ RQ DQLPDO KXVEDQGU\ GLVSOD\V WKH DQLPDO GHQVLW\ LQ WKH µKRW VSRW¶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¶V \HDU  DZDLWV WKHLU IXOO LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ ([FHVVLYH QLWUDWH SROOXWLRQ UHPDLQV D SUREOHP GLVWRUWLQJ PDULQH HFRV\VWHPV 7KHVH WZR GLUHFWLYHVPDNHSDUWRIWKHEDVHOLQHDVVHVVPHQW (($

(25)  5HPDUNDEO\ WKHUH VHHPV WR EH QR GLUHFWLYH WR OLPLW WKH SKRVSKDWH HPLVVLRQ RI WKH DJULFXOWXUDO VHFWRU 5HJLRQDOO\ SKRVSKDWH VDWXUDWLRQ RI WKH WRSVRLO KDV EHFRPH D PDMRU SUREOHP +RZHYHU WKH SKRVSKDWH FRQFHQWUDWLRQLQ(8¶VPDLQULYHUVKDVDGHFUHDVLQJWUHQG7KLVLVSUREDEO\GXHWRWKHLQWURGXFWLRQRISKRVSKDWH IUHHGHWHUJHQWV$IXUWKHUGHFUHDVHLVQRWH[SHFWHGDVDJULFXOWXUDOSUHVVXUHVUHPDLQXQFKDQJHGDQGDPHOLRUDWLRQ KDVORQJGHOD\WLPHV *RRG PDQDJHPHQW RI IUHVKZDWHU UHVRXUFHV LQ WKH VHPLDULG UHJLRQV LV QHFHVVDU\ IRU WKH PDLQWHQDQFH RI WKH UHTXLUHG VWDQGDUGV RI ZDWHU TXDOLW\ DQG TXDQWLW\ DQG WKHUHIRUH IRU UHDFKLQJ WKH JRDOV RI (8 SROLFLHV 7KH WDUJHWVIRUWKH($3DQGIRUWKH(8$FWLRQ3URJUDPPHIRU,QWHJUDWHG*URXQGZDWHU3URWHFWLRQ *$3

(26) DUHWREH LPSOHPHQWHG E\ WKH \HDU  2QH RI *$3¶V PDLQ SXUSRVHV LV WR LQWHJUDWH WKH JURXQGZDWHU SURWHFWLRQ UHTXLUHPHQWV LQWR WKH &RPPRQ $JULFXOWXUDO 3ROLF\ '*9,

(27)  DQG LQWR 5HJLRQDO 3ROLF\ '*;9,

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

(29)   /8LVOLYHVWRFNXQLWDQLQGLFDWRULQZKLFKVSHFLHVDQGFODVVHVRIOLYHVWRFNDUHFRQYHUWHGWRFRPSDUDEOHVL]H )RUH[DPSOHDGDLU\FRZFRXQWVRQH/8ZKLOHVKHHSDQGJRDWVFRXQW/8SLJVFRXQW/8DQGSRXOWU\ /8/8KDFDQURXJKO\EHFRQVLGHUHGDVHTXLYDOHQWWRDPDQXUHGLVSRVDORINJ1KD. .

(30) 5,90UHSRUW. 3DJHRI. 7KHUHDUHQR%/SROLFLHVGLUHFWHGWRSUHYHQWJURXQGZDWHURYHUH[SORLWDWLRQDOWKRXJKVRPHWLPHVQDWLRQDOODZV VHW OLPLWV LQ UHODWLRQ WR WKH QDWXUDO UHFKDUJH E\ SUHFLSLWDWLRQ )RU H[DPSOH 'HQPDUN OLPLWV JURXQG ZDWHU DEVWUDFWLRQWRRIWKHQDWXUDOUHFKDUJH (XURVWDW UHYLHZHG (XURSHDQ UHJLRQV ZKHUH ZDWHU VKRUWDJHV DUH NQRZQ WR RFFXU DQG WKH HVWLPDWHG ZDWHU GHPDQGVEDVHGRQDQLQYHQWRU\DPRQJQDWLRQDOJRYHUQPHQWV (XURVWDW

(31) ,UULJDWLRQPDNHVWKHODUJHVWSDUWRI(XURSH¶VZDWHUGHPDQG$VPDOOGHFUHDVHLQWKHGHPDQG KDVEHHQSURMHFWHG (($

(32) :LWKUHVSHFWWRFRDVWDO]RQHPDQDJHPHQWWKHDVVHVVHGLQGLFDWRULVQLWUDWHORDGWKRXJKQRDEVROXWHWDUJHWFDQ EHVHW7KHUHODWLRQEHWZHHQQLWUDWHORDGDQGJRRGEDWKLQJZDWHUTXDOLW\FRXOGQRWEHGHILQHG7KH1RUWK6HD $FWLRQ3URJUDPPHGHILQHGWKHSROLF\WDUJHWµKDOYLQJWKHORDGWRFRDVWDOZDWHU¶2WKHUFDWFKPHQWDUHDVDUH\HW WRIROORZ $VDJULFXOWXUDO HPLVVLRQV FRQVWLWXWH WKH ODUJHVW EXUGHQ IRU FRDVWDO VHD ORDGV DQ DJULFXOWXUDO QLWUDWH ORDGLQGLFDWRUVHHPVWREHPRVWDSSURSULDWHRIDOOLQGLFDWRUV 6HYHUDO RWKHU SUHVVXUHV WKUHDWHQ WKH TXDOLW\ RI (XURSH¶V FRDVWDO ]RQHV SDUWLFXODUO\ XUEDQLVDWLRQ DQG WKH GHYHORSPHQWRIVSRUWVDQGOHLVXUHIDFLOLWLHV7KRXJK VHYHUDO(8GLUHFWLYHVFDOO IRUJRRGTXDOLW\ ZDWHUTXDOLW\ IRUILVKDQGVKHOOILVKRYHUILVKLQJUHPDLQVWKHODUJHVWWKUHDWWRWKHQDWXUDOEDODQFHRIPDULQHELRWD (($

(33)  1HLWKHUODQGXVHSODQQLQJRURYHUILVKLQJKDVEHHQSDUWRIWKLVDVVHVVPHQW 6SLOORYHU 7KHUHLVVRPHVSLOORYHUIURPDQGWRWKHSUREOHPRIDFLGLILFDWLRQDQGHXWURSKLFDWLRQPDULQHELRGLYHUVLW\ZRXOG JUHDWO\ EHQHILW IURP DFWLRQV DJDLQVW WKH H[FHVVLYH QLWURJHQ LQSXWV WR VXUIDFH ZDWHU 6RLO GHJUDGDWLRQ LV RIWHQ DVVRFLDWHGZLWKRYHUH[SORLWDWLRQRIQDWXUDOJURXQGZDWHUUHVRXUFHV 6XEVLGLDULW\ 7ZR UHDVRQV IDYRXU WKH VXEVLGLDULW\ RI WKH SUREOHP VROXWLRQ )LUVWO\ WKH PDLQ RQJRLQJ SUHVVXUH LV D

(34)  ZDWHU WKLUVW\ FURS SURGXFWLRQ DQG E

(35)  LQWHQVLYH DQLPDO KXVEDQGU\ ERWK RI ZKLFK DUH FRQFHQWUDWHG LQ RQO\ D IHZ (XURSHDQ UHJLRQV 6HFRQGO\ WKH YDU\LQJ VRLO SURSHUWLHV PDNH VSHFLILF UHJLRQDO SROLF\ WDUJHWV PRUH HIIHFWLYH WKDQJHQHULFRQHV+HQFHUHJLRQDODXWKRULWLHVFDQEHVWKDQGOHWKHDFFHOHUDWLRQRIWKHFXUUHQWSROLFLHV 6XVWDLQDELOLW\ ,WLVGLIILFXOWWRVHWJHQHULFSROLF\WDUJHWVEDVHGRQHFRORJLFDOFRQVWUDLQWV7KHSURSRVHG(8)UDPHZRUN:DWHU 'LUHFWLYH &20 

(36)   ILQDO

(37)  ):'

(38)  ZLOO SURYLGH OHJDO VWDWXV WR ZDWHU PDQDJHPHQW SROLFLHV E\ GHILQLQJ FRQVWUDLQWVEDVHGRQORFDOFRQGLWLRQV7KLVUHTXLUHVDQ(8ZLGHLQYHQWRU\RIORFDOZDWHUFRQGLWLRQV$OWKRXJK PDQ\PRQLWRULQJV\VWHPVDUHLQRSHUDWLRQQDWLRQDOO\WKHVHQHHGWREHKDUPRQLVHG2QEHKDOIRI'*;,(($LV HVWDEOLVKLQJLWV(852:$7(51(77KLVPRQLWRULQJDQGLQIRUPDWLRQQHWZRUNIRULQODQGZDWHUUHVRXUFHVZLOO DOORZ WKH ):' WR EHFRPH HIIHFWLYH (($ 

(39)  6HYHUDO H[LVWLQJ GLUHFWLYHV ZLOO EH HQIRUFHG XQGHU WKH IUDPHZRUN*$3¶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± LQ WKH UHOHYDQW UHJLRQV  D FRPSXOVRU\ERRNNHHSLQJRILUULJDWLRQZDWHUDEVWUDFWLRQQXWULHQWVDQGSHVWLFLGHVDWIDUPOHYHOWRVWLPXODWHJRRG DJULFXOWXUDOSUDFWLVHVDQGHQDEOHFRQWURO 7KH LQWURGXFWLRQ RI WKH (852:$7(51(7 PRQLWRULQJ V\VWHP VKRXOG DOOHYLDWH GDWD SUREOHPV LQ WKH QHDU IXWXUH ,W LV UHFRPPHQGHG WR HQVXUH WKDW DQ DVVRFLDWHG DVVHVVPHQW PRGHO WDLORUHG WR WKH GDWD DQG SROLF\ REMHFWLYHVVKRXOGEHGHYHORSHG.

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¶ E\ ¶ RU  NP [  NP 7KH UHVXOWV VKRZ WKH FOHDU 1RUWK 6RXWK GLYLGH LQ ZDWHU DYDLODELOLW\ +RZHYHUWKHUHLVDODUJHYDULDELOLW\ZLWKLQWKH0HGLWHUUDQHDQFRXQWULHVDVZHOO ,WLVLPSRUWDQWWRQRWHWKDWZDWHUGHPDQGVKRXOGQRWEHPHWUHJDUGOHVVWKHWUXHFRVWRIVXSSO\3UREDEO\DJUHDW GHDO RI WKH LUULJDWLRQ XVHV RI ZDWHU LQ WKH (8 DUH XQHFRQRPLF LH WKH\ ZRXOG IDLO D WHVW WKDW FRQVXPHU¶V µZLOOLQJQHVVWRSD\¶IRUZDWHUVXSSO\H[FHHGVLWVWUXHFRVW 3HDUFH

(41) &RUUHFWZDWHUSULFLQJLVWKHSUHIHUUHG PHFKDQLVPIRUEULQJLQJVXSSO\DQGGHPDQGLQWREDODQFH. : DVWHZDWHU 7KH DVVHVVPHQW PHWKRGRORJ\ DQDO\VHV WKH 0HPEHU 6WDWHV  ZDVWH ZDWHU WUHDWPHQW DQG FRQVHTXHQWO\ XSGDWHV WKLV FXUUHQW WUHDWPHQW VWDWH (($ 

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

(43) 5,90UHSRUW. 3DJHRI. 7DEOH5HTXLUHPHQWVXUEDQZDVWHZDWHUWUHDWPHQWGLUHFWLYH 1RQVHQVLWLYHDUHDV $JJORPHUDWLRQ 6HZHUDJH 6HFRQGDU\ 6HZHUDJH [LQK

(44) FRQQHFWLRQ WUHDWPHQW FRQQHFWLRQ EHIRUH EHIRUH EHIRUH  ± ± ± !. 1RWUHT    . 1RWUHT 1RWUHT   . 1RWUHT    . 6HQVLWLYHDUHDV 6HFRQGDU\ $OORZHG PD[LPDO WUHDWPHQW FRQFHQWUDWLRQ LQ EHIRUH GUDLQZDWHU PJO

(45) 1 3 1RWUHT 1RWVS 1RWVS  1RWVS 1RWVS         . 6RXUFH&(& 7KH UHJXODWLRQ RQ DOORZHG PD[LPDO FRQFHQWUDWLRQ LQ WUHDWPHQW SODQW GUDLQ ZDWHU HIIHFWLYHO\ GHPDQGV DJJORPHUDWLRQV VLWXDWHG LQ VHQVLWLYH DUHDV DQG ODUJHU WKDQ  LQKDELWDQWV WR LQYHVW LQ WHUWLDU\ ± LH FKHPLFDOWUHDWPHQW 'HSHQGLQJ RQ WKH 0HPEHU 6WDWH SRSXODWLRQ VWDWLVWLFV WKH 0RVHV PRGHO DVVHVVHV WKH UHTXLUHG VHZHUDJH FRQQHFWLRQDQGPL[RIZDVWHZDWHUWUHDWPHQWWHFKQRORJ\DQGWKHDVVRFLDWHGFRVWVRILQYHVWPHQWDQGRSHUDWLRQ 70(

(46) 6HH$QQH[%RQZDVWHZDWHUWUHDWPHQWIRUGHWDLOV. $ JULFXOWXUDOHPLVVLRQV %DVHGRQOLYHVWRFNXQLWV /8

(47) DQLPDOGHQVLW\LQWKH(8LVDOPRVW/8SHUKD*LYHQWKHUHTXLUHPHQWRIWKH 1LWUDWH'LUHFWLYH±QRWPRUHWKDQNJ1KDPDQXUHVKRXOGEHVSUHDG±WKH(8DVDZKROHVHHPVQRWWRKDYH D SUREOHP +RZHYHU FRQVLGHULQJ OLYHVWRFN GHQVLW\ DW IDUPV DERXW KDOI RI WKH OLYHVWRFN LV NHSW LQ GHQVLWLHV H[FHHGLQJ  /8 SHU KD 7KLV LPSOLHV WKDW PDQ\ IDUP KROGLQJV QHHG WR GLVSRVH RI WKH H[FHVV PDQXUH E\ WUDQVSRUWLQJWKHVOXUU\WRQHLJKERXULQJIDUPHUVRUWRRWKHUUHJLRQV &DWWOHDUHWKHGRPLQDQWDQLPDOFDWHJRU\ZLWKDVKDUHRIDERXWKDOIRIWRWDOOLYHVWRFNSRSXODWLRQ3LJVIRUP RI WKH WRWDO SRSXODWLRQ 7KH VKDUH RI SLJV LQ QDWLRQDO OLYHVWRFN SRSXODWLRQ LV KLJKHVW LQ 'HQPDUN 

(48)  %HOJLXPDQGWKH1HWKHUODQGV ERWK

(49) 7KHVHHVWLPDWHVDUHEDVHGRQZHOORYHUPLOOLRQIDUPKROGLQJVLQWKH )DUP$FFRXQWDQF\'DWD1HWZRUN )$'1

(50)  6HYHUDO HFRQRPLF LQVWUXPHQWV YDQ =HLMWV HW DO 

(51)  KDYH UHFHQWO\ EHHQ GLVFXVVHG 9DQ =HLMWV HW DO UHFRPPHQGWKHHVWDEOLVKPHQWRIDPLQHUDODFFRXQWVFRPELQHGZLWKDQXWULHQWVXUSOXVOHY\LQUHOHYDQWUHJLRQV +RZHYHUUHFHQWREVHUYDWLRQVLQWKH1HWKHUODQGVKDYHVKRZQWKDWDFRQVLGHUDEOHQXPEHURIIDUPHUVFKRRVHWR SD\WKHOHY\UDWKHUWKDQWKHFRVWVRIUHOLDEOHPDQXUHWUDQVSRUW+HQFHWKHWDUJHWVVHWLQWKH1LWUDWH'LUHFWLYHDUH QRWPHWDQGWKH'XWFKJRYHUQPHQWVIDFHVDFWLRQLQWKH&RXUWRI-XVWLFH7KLVVXJJHVWWKHOHY\LVWRRORZDQG PXVWEHEDVHGRQWKHFRVWVRIWUDQVSRUW WKHPDUJLQDODEDWHPHQWFRVWV

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

(53) 3DJHRI. 5,90UHSRUW. 7KH$QQH[HV$%&'DQG(VSHFLI\WKHPRGHOVDQGGDWDXVHG7KHVKRUWDFFRXQWEHORZOLVWVWKHHOHPHQWV XVHG :DWHUDEVWUDFWLRQ (7&,: GDWD VHW FRQWDLQLQJ HVWLPDWHV RI FRXQWU\ VSHFLILF GDWD RQ ZDWHU DEVWUDFWLRQ SHU HFRQRPLF VHFWRU (($

(54)  &$50(1 PRGHODFFRXQWV IRU WKH QHW SUHFLSLWDWLRQ WR DVVHVV ZDWHU VXSSO\ DQG ZDWHU GHPDQG )68 

(55)  1XWULHQWV /(,PRGHOFDOFXODWHVPDQXUHDULVLQJDSSOLFDWLRQDQGWKHFRQVHTXHQFHVRIWKHLQWURGXFWLRQRIOLYHVWRFN OLPLWV /(,

(56) (7&,: GDWD VHW FRQWDLQLQJ HVWLPDWHV RI FRXQWU\ VSHFLILF GDWD RQ ZDVWH ZDWHU FRPSRVLWLRQ VHZDJH FRQQHFWLRQUDWHVVHZDJHWUHDWPHQW (($

(57) 5$,16PRGHOWRFDOFXODWHGLVSHUVLRQRIDPPRQLD $OFDPRHWDO

(58) &$50(1PRGHODFFRXQWV IRUDOOGLIIXVHDQGSRLQWVRXUFHVRIQXWULHQWVWR JURXQGDQG PDULQH ZDWHU 5,90

(59)  &RVWV 5$,16PRGHOHYDOXDWHVWKHFRVWVRIHPLVVLRQDEDWHPHQWDQG 026(6PRGHOWRHYDOXDWHWKHFRVWVRILPSOHPHQWDWLRQRIZDVWHZDWHUWUHDWPHQW 70(PRGHOWRHVWLPDWHRIPDQXUHWUDQVSRUWVLQUHJLRQVZKHUHH[FHHGDQFHVRIWKHQRUPV DFLGLILFDWLRQ VWUDWHJ\QLWUDWHGLUHFWLYH

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

(62) KDYHQRWEHHQPDGHH[SOLFLWLQWKHVHGDWDVHULHV:KHUHLPSOHPHQWHGUHPRYDORIVXEVLGLHVRQZDWHUVXSSO\WR LQWHUQDOLVHZDWHUVXSSO\FRVWVLQWKHZDWHUSULFHPLJKWDOUHDG\KDYHFRQWULEXWHGWRPHHWWKHVHUHTXLUHPHQWV7KH ZDWHUGHPDQGSURMHFWLRQVVKRXOGUHIOHFWWKHLPSDFWVLPSOLFLWO\ &RQVLGHULQJ WKH SUHVHQW DQG IXWXUH ZDWHU GHPDQG SHU VHFWRU WKH WRWDO ZDWHU GHPDQG LQ WKH (8 ZLOO UHPDLQ UHODWLYHO\VWDEOH7KHUDWHRIJURZWKRIWKHPDLQGULYLQJIRUFHVLVH[SHFWHGWRVORZDQGWKHHIILFLHQF\RIZDWHU.

(63) 5,90UHSRUW. 3DJHRI. XVHLVH[SHFWHGWRLPSURYHDV QDWLRQDO ZDWHU FRQVHUYDWLRQ SROLFLHV DQG DFWLRQV KDYH DQ LQFUHDVLQJO\ SRVLWLYH LPSDFW +RZHYHUWKHVHPLDULG DUHDV RI WKH (8  3RUWXJDO 6SDLQ ,WDO\ DQG *UHHFH ± UHPDLQ YHU\ VXVFHSWLEOH WR WKH HIIHFWV RI GHVHUWLILFDWLRQ GXH WR WKH LPEDODQFH EHWZHHQ QDWXUDO UHVRXUFHV DQG DEVWUDFWLRQV IRU LUULJDWLRQ 7KH WUHQGLQLUULJDWHGDUHDDQGWKHDOORFDWHGDPRXQWRIZDWHUSHUKHFWDUHZLOOVOLJKWO\GHFUHDVH+HQFHWKHGHPDQG IRULUULJDWLRQZDWHULVGHFUHDVLQJ 7DEOH:DWHUGHPDQGIRULUULJDWLRQUHODWLYHWRWKHDPRXQWRIDYDLODEOHQHWSUHFLSLWDWLRQDQGWRWKHDPRXQW RIDQQXDOUHVRXUFHV QHWSUHFLSLWDWLRQDQGLPSRUW

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

(65) DQGUHPRYDOHIILFLHQF\UDWHV 

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

(67)  DQG VWURQJHU UHGXFWLRQ UHTXLUHPHQWV VHH 7DEOH 

(68)  ZLOO FDXVHWKLVLPSURYHPHQW 'HVSLWHWKH LQFUHDVH RI XQWUHDWHG HPLVVLRQV ZLWK  LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI WKH 8::7' ZLOO UHGXFH WKH DFWXDO HPLVVLRQV LQ  ZLWK   DQG  IRU &2' 1WRW DQG 3WRW UHVSHFWLYHO\ FRPSDUHG WR WKH DFWXDO HPLVVLRQVLQ )LJXUH  SUHVHQWV WKH FKDQJH LQ QLWUDWH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ DW WKH ULYHU PRXWK $JULFXOWXUH LV WKH PDLQ HPLWWHU RI QLWUDWHV([FHSWIRUWKHKRWVSRWVRIDQLPDOKXVEDQGU\QXWULHQWHPLVVLRQVKDUGO\FKDQJH)LJXUHDOVRSUHVHQWV.

(69) 3DJHRI. 5,90UHSRUW. WKHFKDQJHLQSKRVSKDWHFRQFHQWUDWLRQDWWKHULYHUPRXWK3KRVSKDWHFRQFHQWUDWLRQGHFUHDVHVPDLQO\GXHWRWKH XVHRIGHWHUJHQWVZLWKRXWSKRVSKDWHVLQVRPH(80HPEHU6WDWHV 'HVSLWHWKHSRSXODWLRQDQGZHOIDUHJURZWK±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

(70) .

(71) 5,90UHSRUW. 3DJHRI. 0HDVXUHVUHODWHGWRDJULFXOWXUH 7UDQVSRUWLQJPDQXUHRXWRI KRWVSRWV. &XUUHQWOHJLVODWLRQZLWKUHJDUGWRPDQXUHGLVSRVDOOLPLWVWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRIPDQXUHRQDJULFXOWXUDOODQGWR NJ1KD:KHQDWDIDUPWKHDPRXQWRIPDQXUHH[FHHGVWKLVOLPLWWKHH[FHVVPDQXUHKDVWREHWUDQVSRUWHGRU WUHDWHG8SWRQRZWUHDWPHQWFRVWVDUHPXFKODUJHUWKDQWUDQVSRUW7KHUHIRUHZHRQO\FRQVLGHUHGWUDQVSRUWRI PDQXUH FROOHFWHG DW LQWHQVLYH KXVEDQGU\ IDUPV KROGLQJ SLJV SRXOWU\ DQG GDLU\ FDWWOH )LJXUH  VKRZV WKH WUDQVSRUW FRVWV LQ WKH (8 IRU YDULRXV OLPLWV RI WKH PDQXUH GLVSRVDO OLPLW JLYHQ WKH  VSOLW RI UHJLRQDO DQLPDOGHQVLWLHV (XURVWDW

(72) DVHYDOXDWHGE\70(. $QLPDOPDQXUHWUDQVSRUW FRVWV 0(85D

(73). 0DQXUHGLVSRVDOOLPLWYV7UDQVSRUWFRVWV         . . . . . . . PDQXUHGLVSRVDOOLPLW NJ1KD

(74). )LJXUH$QLPDOPDQXUHWUDQVSRUWFRVWV PLOOLRQ SHU\HDU

(75) DVDIXQFWLRQRILQWURGXFLQJPDQXUHGLVSRVDO OLPLWV 5HGXFLQJDQLPDOGHQVLW\ 5HOD[LQJWKHPHDVXUHWR/8KDQDWLRQDOO\RU/8KDRQIDUPOHYHORUUHJLRQDOO\ZRXOGUHOD[WKHSUHVVXUH RQWKHDJULFXOWXUDOVHFWRU7DEOHVKRZVWKHLPSDFWRIWKHIRXUDOWHUQDWLYHVDQGWKHLPSDFWRQWKHPDQXUH DULVLQJ$JJUHJDWLQJWKHLPSDFWVRIWKHVHPHDVXUHVWR(8OHYHOKLGHVWKHLPSDFWVRQUHJLRQDODJULFXOWXUHDQG HQYLURQPHQW$SSHQGL[&SURYLGHVGHWDLOVIRUWKHµKRWVSRWV¶RILQWHQVLYHDQLPDOKXVEDQGU\LQWKH(8 %HOJLXP'HQPDUN1LHGHUVDFKVHQ1RUGUKHLQ:HVWIDOHQ*DOLFLD&DWDOXQD/RLUH%UHWDJQH/RPEDUG\DQG WKH1HWKHUODQGVDOOUHJLRQVZLWKDOLYHVWRFNGHQVLW\KLJKHUWKDQ2YHURIWKHSLJVKXVEDQGU\LV FRQFHQWUDWHGLQWKHVHµKRWVSRWV¶ZKLOHWKHLUDUDEOHDUHDPDNHVRQO\RIWKHWRWDODUDEOHDUHD.

(76) 3DJHRI. 7DEOH. 5,90UHSRUW. ,PSDFWRIYDULRXVYROXPHPHDVXUHVUHJDUGLQJDQLPDOGHQVLWLHVLQ/LYHVWRFN8QLWV /8

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µHQGRISLSH¶ KLJK VPDOOLQFUHDVH 0HGLXP $3WHFKQR µHQGRISLSH¶ PHGLXP VPDOOLQFUHDVH 6PDOO $3YROXPH /8KDRQIDUP VPDOO ODUJHUHGXFWLRQ /DUJH 7KH$3WHFKQRVFHQDULRDVVHVVHVFRVWHIIHFWLYHVROXWLRQVWRERWKDFLGLILFDWLRQDQGR]RQHH[SRVXUHDQGGRHVQRW OLPLW HPLVVLRQV DV VXFK 7KH VFHQDULR DVVHVVHV D SDFNDJH RI PHDVXUHV IRU 62[ 12[ 1092& DQG 1+ HPLVVLRQ DEDWHPHQW 7KH LPSDFW RI WKH YROXPH PHDVXUH LQ $3YROXPH

(78)  LV TXLWH H[WUHPH SLJV DQG SRXOWU\ SRSXODWLRQVUHGXFHE\DIDFWRURI+RZHYHULQDFLGLILFDWLRQDEDWHPHQWWKLVGUDVWLFVFHQDULRZLWKLWV1+ HPLVVLRQ UHGXFWLRQ  ZLOO DOORZ IRU ODUJHU HPLVVLRQV RI 62[ DQG 12[ DV ERWK SDFNDJHV WHFKQR DQG YROXPH PHHW WKH VDPH HPLVVLRQ WDUJHW %\ DQG ODUJH WKH $3 YROXPH ZLOO EULQJ DERXW D WUDQVIHU RI FRVWV IURP WKH WUDQVSRUWLQGXVWU\DQGHQHUJ\VHFWRUVWRWKHDJULFXOWXUHVHFWRU$OVRWKHUHDUHPRUHVSLOORYHUHIIHFWV7KH$3 YROXPHKDVIHZHUHPLVVLRQVRIPHWKDQH FOLPDWHFKDQJH

(79) DQGSDUWLFXODWH PDWWHU30 FKHPLFDOULVNVXUEDQ VWUHVV

(80)  7DEOHUHYLHZVWKHREWDLQHGUHVXOWVDJJUHJDWHGWR(8OHYHO(PLVVLRQUHGXFWLRQWRRIOHYHOVDUH REWDLQHGE\ERWKWKLV$3DQGWKH7'VFHQDULRDWWKHH[SHQVHRIUHGXFLQJWKHSLJVDQGSRXOWU\VHFWRUE\DIDFWRU RIRURILQFUHDVLQJFRQWUROFRVWVRI ELOOLRQSHU\HDU 7DEOH&RPSDULVRQRIWKHYDULRXVVFHQDULRV (8 ILJXUHVIURP5$,16

(81)  %/   .   . $3 WHFKQR   . 7RWDO&+HPLVVLRQ. . . . 7RWDO1SURGXFWLRQ 7RWDO32SURGXFWLRQ 1+HPLVVLRQ NWRQ

(82) 1+DEDWHPHQWFRVWV 0 \U

(83) 7RWDODEDWHPHQWFRVWV * \U

(84) $UHDH[FHHGDFLG $UHDH[FHHGHXWURS. . &RZV PLOOLRQV

(85) 3LJV PLOOLRQV

(86) 3RXOWU\ PLOOLRQV

(87).   . $3 YROXPH   . 7'. . .   .      .     .     .     .

(88) 5,90UHSRUW. 3DJHRI.  &RQFOXVLRQV .(<0(66$*(6 œ œ œ œ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±(852:$7(51(7VKRXOG DOOHYLDWH WKLV GDWD SUREOHP LQ WKH QHDU IXWXUH (($ 

(89)  ,W LV UHFRPPHQGHG WR HQVXUH WKDW DQ DVVRFLDWHG DVVHVVPHQWPRGHOZLOOEHGHYHORSHG ,QWKH8.WKHGDWDDYDLODELOLW\VLWXDWLRQGLGZDUUDQWDFRVWEHQHILWDQDO\VLVRIWKHSURSRVHG:DWHU)UDPHZRUN 'LUHFWLYH :5F 

(90) 3RWHQWLDOO\ FRVWV UDQJH IURP  WR  ELOOLRQ ZKLFK DUH GRPLQDWHG E\ WKH FRVWV RI FRQWUROOLQJPXQLFLSDOSRLQWVRXUFHVDQGDJULFXOWXUDOGLIIXVHVRXUFHV%HQHILWVDUHH[SHFWHGWRUDQJHIURP WR ELOOLRQ7KHODUJHVWEHQHILWVDULVHIURPLPSURYHGDPHQLW\IRURZQHUVRIULSDULDQKRPHVDQGIURPLPSURYLQJ ORZ IORZ UHJLPHV LQ ULYHUV +RZHYHU PDQ\ XQFHUWDLQWLHV UHPDLQ ZLWK UHJDUGV WR DVVXPSWLRQV DQG VHQVLWLYLW\ DQDO\VHVVWUHVVHGWKHOLPLWDWLRQRIWKHDERYHPHQWLRQHGUHVXOWV.

(91) 3DJHRI. 5,90UHSRUW. 5HIHUHQFHV $OFDPR-6KDZ5DQG+RUGLMN/ HGV

(92)  

(93) 7KH5$,160RGHORI$FLGLILFDWLRQ6FLHQFHDQG6WUDWHJLHVLQ (XURSH.OXZHU$FDGHPLF3XEOLVKHUV'RUGUHFKW7KH1HWKHUODQGV (($(XURSH¶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

(94)  1(5,,QWHJUDWHGHQYLURQPHQWDODVVHVVPHQWRQHXWURSKLFDWLRQ &OXEGH%UX[HOOHV:DWHULQ(XURSH:KDWWRH[SHFWIURPWKH(8SROLF\ 5,903RWHQWLDOZDWHUVXSSO\YVGRPHVWLFZDWHUGHPDQGRQD(XURSHDQVFDOH5HSRUWFRPPLVVLRQHGE\ WKH(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ¶V)RUZDUG6WXG\8QLW3URMHFW& 5,90  &$50(1 DQ LQIRUPDWLRQ V\VWHP IRU ZDWHU HXWURSKLFDWLRQ SROLFLHV &RPSLODWLRQ RI UHVHDUFK UHSRUWV,QWHUQDOQRWH :5F  3RWHQWLDO FRVWV DQG EHQHILWV RI LPSOHPHQWLQJ WKH SURSRVHG ZDWHU UHVRXUFHV IUDPHZRUN GLUHFWLYH ILQDOUHSRUWWRWKHGHSDUWPHQWRIWKH(QYLURQPHQW7UDQVSRUWDQGWKH5HJLRQVUHSRUWQR'(75:5F SOF0HGPHQKDP8..

(95) 5,90UHSRUW. 3DJHRI.  %HQHILWDVVHVVPHQW  :DWHUVWUHVV  3XEOLFRSLQLRQ (XUREDURPHWHU  DQG  ERWK UDQN µZDWHU PDQDJHPHQW¶ DV RQH RI WKH WRS WKUHH PRVW VHULRXV HQYLURQPHQWDO SUREOHP 9DULDQFH DERXW WKLV UDQNLQJ LV TXLWH QDUURZ WKHUH LV D VW UDQNLQJ LQ ,UHODQG DQG 'HQPDUNDQGDQGUDQNLQJLQ(QJODQGDQGWKHHLJKW(XURSHDQFRXQWULHVFRYHUHGLQWKH,663 

(96) VXUYH\.  ([SHUWRSLQLRQ *(3 HW DO 

(97)  UHSRUW UDQNLQJV IRU µZDWHU VFDUFLW\ DQG SROOXWLRQ¶ 7KH SROOXWLRQ LV GXH WR DJULFXOWXUDO SUDFWLFHV DLU SROOXWLRQ DFLGLILFDWLRQ

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œ SRSXODWLRQDWULVNRIGLVFRQWLQXRXVVXSSO\ œ ZDWHUFRQVXPSWLRQGDWDDQG œ :73GDWDIRUZDWHULQ(XURSH 4XDOLW\ œ YROXPHRIZDWHUXVHGSHUXQLWRIYDOXHDGGHGLQDJULFXOWXUHDQG œ 1LWUDWHDQGSHVWLFLGHFRQFHQWUDWLRQLQJURXQGZDWHU.   ,663 

(99) VXUYH\LQFOXGHV7KH1HWKHUODQGV,UHODQG,WDO\*UHDW%ULWDLQ1RUZD\6SDLQ:HVW *HUPDQ\(DVW*HUPDQ\  QRWFDOFXODWHGGXHWRLQFRPSDWLELOLW\RINH\LQGLFDWRUGDWDZLWK:73GDWD.

(100) 3DJHRI. 5,90UHSRUW. :DWHUPDQDJHPHQWLQGLFDWRUV :DWHU PDQDJHPHQW DGGUHVVHV WZR LVVXHV ZDWHU DYDLODELOLW\ DQG ZDWHU TXDOLW\ $V IDU DV FRVWEHQHILW DQDO\VLV LV FRQFHUQHGWKHIROORZLQJDUHWKHUHOHYDQWLQGLFDWRUV :DWHU DYDLODELOLW\ LV GHILQHG ZLWK UHVSHFW WR JURXQG ZDWHU DYDLODELOLW\ DQG ZDWHU VWUHVV :KHUH ZDWHU VWUHVV LV GHILQHGDVDVLWXDWLRQLQZKLFKWKHUHLVOHVVWKDQOLWUHVFDSGD\DYDLODELOLW\7ZRYDULDQWVRIWKLVDUHJLYHQE\ 5,90 WKH ILUVW LQGLFDWRU JURXQG ZDWHU DYDLODELOLW\

(101)  DVVXPHV  RI JURXQGZDWHU UHFKDUJH LV DYDLODEOH IRU FRQVXPSWLRQ7KHVHFRQGLQGLFDWRU ZDWHUVWUHVV

(102) DVVXPHVWKDWJURXQGZDWHUUHFKDUJHLVDYDLODEOHDQGRI WRWDOXSVWUHDPGLVFKDUJHLVDYDLODEOH+RZHYHUWKHVHGDWDDUHDYDLODEOHIRUWKH%DVHOLQHVFHQDULRRQO\ :DWHU TXDOLW\ WKH LQGLFDWRUV DUH L

(103)  DUHDV ZKHUH  PJO 121 WDUJHW LQ JURXQGZDWHU LV H[FHHGHG DQG LL

(104)  ULYHU VWUHWFKHVRIDFHUWDLQTXDOLW\ 7KHUHDUHVWXGLHVRIWKH:73WRDYRLGQLWUDWHVLQJURXQGZDWHUKRZHYHUWKHLQGLFDWRULVQRWFXUUHQWO\DYDLODEOHDWWKH (8OHYHO1DQG3FRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQFRDVWDODUHDVDUHFRYHUHGLQWKHHXWURSKLFDWLRQDQDO\VLVRIWKH%DOWLF6HD GHDOWZLWKLQWKHEHQHILWDVVHVVPHQWRI &RDVWDO=RQHV  :DWHUDYDLODELOLW\DQDO\VLV 7DEOHDQGUHSRUWWKHZDWHUDYDLODELOLW\ RUZDWHUVWUHVV

(105) LQGLFDWRUV 7DEOH &RXQWU\. *URXQGZDWHUDYDLODELOLW\DQGVWUHVV IUDFWLRQRIVWUHVVHG SRSXODWLRQ 

(106) $XVWULD  %HOJLXP/X[HPERXUJ  'HQPDUN  )LQODQG  )UDQFH  *HUPDQ\  *UHHFH  ,UHODQG  ,WDO\  7KH1HWKHUODQGV  3RUWXJDO  6SDLQ  6ZHGHQ  8QLWHG.LQJGRP  (8 . IUDFWLRQRIVWUHVVHGSRSXODWLRQ  EDVHOLQH

(107)               .

(108) 5,90UHSRUW. 7DEOH &RXQWU\. 3DJHRI. 6XUIDFHDQGJURXQGZDWHUVWUHVV IUDFWLRQRIVWUHVVHGSRSXODWLRQ 

(109) $XVWULD  %HOJLXP/X[HPERXUJ  'HQPDUN  )LQODQG  )UDQFH  *HUPDQ\  *UHHFH  ,UHODQG  ,WDO\  7KH1HWKHUODQGV  3RUWXJDO  6SDLQ  6ZHGHQ  8QLWHG.LQJGRP  (8 . IUDFWLRQRIVWUHVVHGSRSXODWLRQ EDVHOLQH

(110)               . 7KHIUDFWLRQRIWKHSRSXODWLRQZLWKZDWHUVWUHVVVWD\VFRQVWDQWIRU(8LQWKH%DVHOLQHVFHQDULRIRURQHLQGLFDWRU DQGLQFUHDVHVVOLJKWO\IRUWKHVHFRQGLQGLFDWRU+RZHYHUVLQFHWKHSRSXODWLRQJURZVIURPPLOOLRQLQWR PLOOLRQLQWKHUHVXOWLVDQLQFUHDVHLQWKHDEVROXWHQXPEHURISHRSOHVXEMHFWWRZDWHUVWUHVV7KHHVWLPDWHV DUH 1XPEHURISHRSOHVXEMHFWWRZDWHUVWUHVV *URXQGZDWHUDYDLODELOLW\ :DWHU VXUIDFHDQGJURXQGZDWHU

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

(112) WKHJXLGHOLQHGRFXPHQWE\<RXQJ 

(113) DQGWKHHDUOLHUV\QWKHVLVRI*LEERQV 

(114) .

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

(116) DQG<RXQJ 

(117) )RUDPRUHH[WHQVLYHFRPSHQGLXPRI86SULFHHODVWLFLWLHVVHH3H]]H\ DQG0LOOV 

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

(120) UHSRUWVFRQVXPSWLRQE\VHFWRUIRUPRVW (8 (XURSHDQ FRXQWULHV EXW LW LV QRW SRVVLEOH WR PDNH WKH GDWD WKHUH FRPSDWLEOH ZLWK WKH 5,90 ZDWHU VWUHVV. LQGLFDWRUV7KDFNUD\ 

(121) KDVSURGXFHGWKHILJXUHVIRUUHVLGHQWLDOFRQVXPSWLRQVKRZQLQ7DEOH7DEOH DOVRVKRZVVRPHSULFHLQIRUPDWLRQWDNHQIURPVRXUFHVXWLOLVHGLQ3H]]H\DQG0LOO 

(122)  7DEOH &RXQWU\. :DWHUFRQVXPSWLRQVDQGSULFHVLQVHOHFWHGFRXQWULHV &RQVXPSWLRQLQFXELFPHWUHV\USHU FDSLWD. 3ULFHLQ SHUP.   %HOJLXP   $XVWULD QD  (QJODQGDQG:DOHV   *HUPDQ\   )UDQFH QD  'HQPDUN QD  6ZHGHQ QD  ,WDO\   6ZLW]HUODQG 6RXUFH7KDFNUD\ 

(123) 3H]]H\DQG0LOO 

(124)  7KDFNUD\SURGXFHVGDWDZKLFKVKRZVRPHFKDQJHVLQ WKHQXPEHUVVKRZQKHUH+RZHYHUWKHSULFHGDWDDUHIRUVRZHKDYHXVHGFRQVXPSWLRQGDWD :LOOLQJQHVVWRSD\HVWLPDWHVIRULQFUHDVHGZDWHUVXSSO\ 7RILQGWKH:73IRUDQLQFUHPHQWLQZDWHUVXSSO\XVHFDQEHPDGHRIWKHIRUPXOD *LEERQVS

(125)  *:73  34[

(126)  [

(127) >44[44[@ :KHUH*:73LVJURVVZLOOLQJQHVVWRSD\3LVWKHUXOLQJSULFH4LVWKHTXDQWLW\FRQVXPHG4LVWKHQHZTXDQWLW\ DQG[ HZKHUHHLVWKHHODVWLFLW\RIGHPDQG LQGHSHQGHQWRIVLJQ

(128)  $SSOLFDWLRQRIWKHIRUPXODWRWKHGDWDLQ7DEOHJLYHVWKHIROORZLQJUHVXOWV VHH7DEOH

(129) DVVXPLQJDQHODVWLFLW\ RI +RJOXQG

(130) .   )RUH[DPSOH)UDQFHKDVELOOLRQP\HDUFRQVXPSWLRQDFFRUGLQJWR(85267$7%XWWKLVILJXUH UHODWHVWR(YHQLILWLVDSSUR[LPDWHO\FRUUHFWDYHUDJHFRQVXPSWLRQZRXOGEH[[[ >[@ OLWUHVSHUGD\PRUHWKDQWLPHVWKH ZDWHUVWUHVV WKUHVKROG,IRQO\GRPHVWLF FRQVXPSWLRQLVWDNHQWKHQWKHILJXUHLVOLWUHVSHUGD\OHVVWKDQRIWKHZDWHUVWUHVVWKUHVKROG7KH FRQYHUVLRQIDFWRUFRQYHUWVFXELFPHWUHVSHU\HDUWROLWUHVSHUGD\.

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

(134) 5,90UHSRUW. 3DJHRI. QHZVXSSOLHVRQO\ODVW2QFHDJDLQLWLVLPSRUWDQWWRXQGHUVWDQGWKDWWKHVHDUHYHU\EURDGDYHUDJHVLWGRHVQRWPHDQ WKDWDQHZUHVHUYRLULQVRPHORFDWLRQLVQHYHUMXVWLILHG &RQFOXVLRQRQZDWHUDYDLODELOLW\ 7KHUHLVDFOHDU:73RQWKHSDUWRI(8UHVLGHQWVIRULQFUHDVHGZDWHUVXSSO\EXWFRPSDULVRQRIWKLV:73ZLWKWKH FRVWVRIQHZVXSSOLHVVXJJHVWVIDLUO\VWURQJO\WKDWQHZVFKHPHVDUHQRWJHQHUDOO\MXVWLILHGLQFRVWEHQHILWWHUPV7KH IRFXVRISROLF\VKRXOGEHRQFRUUHFWZDWHUSULFLQJDQGGHPDQGPDQDJHPHQWVFKHPHV VHHWKHSROLF\GLVFXVVLRQ

(135) .  :DWHUTXDOLW\DQDO\VLV 7KHVHFRQGIHDWXUHRIZDWHUPDQDJHPHQWLVZDWHUTXDOLW\7ZRTXDOLW\LQGLFDWRUVDUHDYDLODEOH L

(136) DUHDVZKHUH PJO121WDUJHWLQJURXQGZDWHULVH[FHHGHGDQG LL

(137) ULYHUVWUHWFKHVRIDFHUWDLQTXDOLW\ :DWHUTXDOLW\DUHDVZKHUHPJO121WDUJHWLQJURXQGZDWHULVH[FHHGHG7DEOHVKRZVWKHIUDFWLRQRI DUHDDERYHWKLVJURXQGZDWHUTXDOLW\JXLGHOLQH 7DEOH &RXQWU\. *URXQGZDWHUTXDOLW\ )UDFWLRQRIDUHDDERYHJXLGHOLQH 

(138) $XVWULD  %HOJLXP/X[HPERXUJ  'HQPDUN  )LQODQG  )UDQFH  *HUPDQ\  *UHHFH  ,UHODQG  ,WDO\  7KH1HWKHUODQGV  3RUWXJDO  6SDLQ  6ZHGHQ  8QLWHG.LQJGRP  (8± . IUDFWLRQRIDUHDDERYHJXLGHOLQH EDVHOLQH

(139)               . +DQOH\ 

(140) HVWLPDWHVWKH:73IRUJURXQGZDWHUTXDOLW\LPSURYHPHQWXVLQJDFRQWLQJHQWYDOXDWLRQVXUYH\EDVHG RQ WKH SRSXODWLRQ LQWKH $QJOLDQ :DWHU 6HUYLFHV DUHD 7KLV YDOXH LV  SHUSHUVRQSHU \HDU SULFHV

(141)  IRU HQVXULQJWKDWZDWHUTXDOLW\GRHVQRWJREHORZWKHOLPLWRIPJOQLWUDWHFRQFHQWUDWLRQ 7KH5,90VFHQDULRGDWDDUHSUHVHQWHGLQWHUPVRIIUDFWLRQRIDUHDDERYHWKHJXLGHOLQHYDOXHRIPJOZKLOHWKH RQO\YDOXDWLRQVWXG\IRUQLWUDWHSROOXWLRQLVH[SUHVVHGLQXQLWVRI:73SHUSHUVRQSHU\HDU7KHUHIRUHDFRQYHUVLRQ RIWKHXQLWVRIWKHSK\VLFDOGDWDLVQHFHVVDU\ )RUWKLVWKHIROORZLQJDVVXPSWLRQVDUHPDGH œ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œ IRUWKHXSSHUERXQGHVWLPDWHZHDVVXPHWKDWWKHZKROHSRSXODWLRQLQDFRXQWU\LVFRQFHUQHGDERXWWKLVSUREOHP DQG KHQFH ZLOO KDYH D :73 WR DYRLG LW UHJDUGOHVV RI WKH IUDFWLRQ RI WKH WRWDO DUHD DIIHFWHG RU WKH OHYHO RI SROOXWLRQ7KHUHIRUHZHDJJUHJDWHWKHLQGLYLGXDO:73HVWLPDWHRYHUWKHZKROHSRSXODWLRQ.

(142) 3DJHRI. 5,90UHSRUW. 7DEOHVKRZVWKHGDPDJHYDOXDWLRQVIRUWKHEDVHOLQHVFHQDULRLQDQG 7DEOH 'DPDJHFRVWVLQLQWKH%DVHOLQH PLOOLRQ SULFHV

(143) (VWLPDWH   ORZHUERXQG   XSSHUERXQG   1RWH%DVHOLQHVFHQDULRUHODWHVUHODWHVWRDUHDVZKHUHPJO121WDUJHWLQJURXQGZDWHULVH[FHHGHG :DWHUTXDOLW\ULYHUVWUHWFKHVRIDFHUWDLQTXDOLW\7KHUHDUHWZRVHWVRISK\VLFDOGDWDIRUWKLVLQGLFDWRU7KHILUVW RQH VKRZV WKH IUDFWLRQ RI VXUIDFH DUHD ZLWK DYHUDJH (8

(144)  FRQGLWLRQV PJO

(145)   7KH VHFRQG RQH VKRZV WKH IUDFWLRQRIVXUIDFHDUHDZLWKSRRUTXDOLW\ULYHUZDWHU7DEOHSUHVHQWVERWKVHWVRIGDWD 7KHYDOXDWLRQVWXG\ZHKDYHFKRVHQWRXVHIRUWKLVLV*UHHQDQG:LOOLV 

(146) 7KH\HVWLPDWHWZRQRQXVHYDOXH HVWLPDWHVLH:73XQUHODWHGWRDFWXDOXVHRIWKHULYHUV œ SHUKRXVHKROGSHUNPRIIUHVKZDWHUERG\SHU\HDUIRULPSURYLQJ ZDWHUTXDOLW\IURPµPHGLXP¶WRµ JRRG¶TXDOLW\7KLVYDOXHLVXVHGIRUWKHGDWDEDVHGRQWKHDYHUDJH(8TXDOLW\DQG œ   SHU KRXVHKROG SHU NP RI IUHVKZDWHU ERG\ SHU \HDU IRU LPSURYLQJ ZDWHU TXDOLW\ IURP µSRRU¶ WR µPHGLXP¶TXDOLW\7KLVYDOXHLVXVHGIRUWKHGDWDIRUSRRUTXDOLW\ULYHUZDWHU ,QERWKFDVHVZHDVVXPHWKDWDQDUHDRI[NPDIIHFWHGE\HDFKSROOXWLRQOHYHOLVUHSUHVHQWDWLYHRI[NP LHWKH VTXDUHURRWRI[NP

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±  .                . SRRUTXDOLW\ EDVHOLQH               .

(148) 5,90UHSRUW. 3DJHRI. 7DEOHVKRZVWKHGDPDJHYDOXHVIRU D

(149) IUDFWLRQRIVXUIDFHDUHDZLWKDYHUDJH (8

(150) FRQGLWLRQVDQG E

(151) IUDFWLRQ RIVXUIDFHDUHDZLWKSRRUTXDOLW\ULYHUZDWHU 7DEOH 'DPDJHFRVWLQGXHWRZDWHUTXDOLW\%DVHOLQHVFHQDULR PLOOLRQ (VWLPDWH   $YHUDJH(8TXDOLW\   µSRRUTXDOLW\¶   7RWDO   7KHGDPDJHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKµSRRU¶TXDOLW\LVJUHDWHUWKDQWKDWDVVRFLDWHGZLWKDYHUDJH(8TXDOLW\7KLVLVEHFDXVH WKHXQLW:73WRLPSURYHWKHIRUPHULVJUHDWHUWKDQWKDWIRUWKHODWWHU &RVW%HQHILWDQDO\VLVRIJURXQGZDWHUTXDOLW\ 6LJQLILFDQWZRUNKDVQRZEHHQGRQHRQWKHHFRQRPLFYDOXHRIZDWHUDVDQHQYLURQPHQWDOVHUYLFH7DEOH UHSRUWVRQWKHYDOXHRIZDWHULQWKUHH8.VWXGLHV,QHDFKFDVHDFRQWLQJHQWYDOXDWLRQPHWKRGRORJ\ZDVXVHG 6LJQLILFDQWLVVXHVDULVLQJLQWKHVWXGLHVZHUH D

(152) WKHVWDWLVWLFDOQRQVLJQLILFDQFHRIWKHQRQXVHYDOXHVLQWKH6 : (QJODQG VWXG\ LH WKH PHDQ YDOXH UHSRUWHG LV QRW VWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW E

(153)  WKH PDMRU SUREOHP RI DJJUHJDWLQJ LQGLYLGXDO RU KRXVHKROG YDOXHV LH RYHU ZKDW SRSXODWLRQ DUH WKH YDOXHV UHSUHVHQWDWLYH" F

(154)  WKH VLJQLILFDQWSURSRUWLRQRI]HUR:73UHVSRQVHVLQWKH2XVHFDVHWKHPHDQYDOXHVEHLQJµGULYHQ¶E\WKHRQHWKLUG RIWKHJHQHUDOSXEOLFJLYLQJSRVLWLYH:73QXPEHUV7KHVWXGLHVGRVKRZKRZHYHUWKDWHFRQRPLFYDOXHVIRU ZDWHUTXDQWLW\ DQGWKHUHE\ZDWHUTXDOLW\VLQFHIORZUHJLPHVDIIHFWTXDOLW\

(155) FDQEHGHULYHG+RZPHDQLQJIXOLW LV WR FRQYHUW WKHVH YDOXHV LQWR µSHU P¶ RU µSHU PLOHV¶ QXPEHUV LV IDU PRUH GRXEWIXO HYHQ WKRXJK VHYHUDO µPDQXDOV¶RIDVVHVVPHQWKDYHDWWHPSWHGWRPDNHWKLVWUDQVLWLRQ )RXQGDWLRQIRU:DWHU5HVHDUFK

(156)  7DEOH. (FRQRPLFYDOXHRIHQYLURQPHQWDOIXQFWLRQVRIZDWHU8.. 6WXG\ *DUURGDQG:LOOLV . (50DQG8QLYHUVLW\ RI1HZFDVWOH ()7(&DQG &6(5*(. /RFDWLRQ 5LYHU'DUHQW (QJODQG. 5LYHUVLQ6:(QJODQG. 5LYHU2XVH(QJODQG. 9DOXHRIZDWHU:73SHUSHUVRQWR 0DLQWDLQIORZ. ,PSURYH IORZ   9LVLWRUV   5HVLGHQWV   1RQXVHUV 9DOXHRIZDWHU0DUJLQDO:73SHUSHUVRQSHUPLOH SHUDQQXP 8VHUV  1RQXVHUV  9DOXHRIZDWHU:73SHUKRXVHKROGSHUDQQXPWR UHVWRUHULYHUWRSUHDEVWUDFWLRQOHYHOV FPLQFUHDVH

(157) *HQHUDOSXEOLF 8VHUV.  . *URXQGZDWHU FRQWDPLQDWLRQ FDQ DULVH IURP YDULRXV FKHPLFDO ULVNV LQFOXGLQJ SHVWLFLGH ULVNV DQG IURP QLWUDWH FRQWDPLQDWLRQGXHWRIHUWLOLVHUUXQRII7KHUHDUHRQO\DIHZEHQHILWYDOXDWLRQVIRU(XURSHEXWPRUHIURPWKH86$ VHH7DEOH

(158) 7KHVHDUHIDLUO\FRQVLVWHQWLQVXJJHVWLQJWKDW :73 WRDYRLG FRQWDPLQDWLRQ FRXOGEH YHU\ KLJK UHIOHFWLQJ KRXVHKROGV  FRQFHUQ RYHU GULQNLQJ ZDWHU 7KH WZR (XURSHDQ VWXGLHV +DQOH\ 

(159)  IRU (QJODQG DQG 3UHVV 

(160) IRU,WDO\VXJJHVWDUDQJHRIYDOXDWLRQVRIRQHRUGHURIPDJQLWXGHEXWWKH,WDOLDQHVWLPDWHFRXOGUHIOHFW WKHH[LVWHQFHRIDSULRUPDMRULQFLGHQWZLWKWKHTXDOLW\RI0LODQ VJURXQGZDWHU.

(161) 3DJHRI. 7DEOH 6WXG\. 5,90UHSRUW. 6WXGLHVRI:73SHUKRXVHKROGSHU\HDUWRDYRLGZDWHUFRQWDPLQDWLRQ :73SHUKRXVHKROGSHU\HDU . 86$ -RUGDQDQG(GZDUGV 

(162) 6FKXOW]DQG/LQGVD\ 

(163) (GZDUGV 

(164) 3RZHU 

(165) 0LWFKHOODQG&DUVRQ 

(166) 8. +DQOH\ 

(167) ,WDO\ 3UHVV 

(168) &RVWVRIFRQWURO %&UDWLR ORZUDWLR

(169) %&UDWLR KLJKUDWLR

(170).          . &RVWVRIGHFRQWDPLQDWLRQDUHTXRWHGE\6|GHUTYLVWDVVRPHSHUKRXVHKROGSHUDQQXP SKSD

(171) IRUDFOHDQ XS SURJUDPPH LQ 9HQLFH &RPSDULQJ EHQHILWV DQG FRVWV DQG DVVXPLQJ YDOXHV DUH WUDQVIHUDEOH EHWZHHQ VLWHV VXJJHVWVWKDWEHQHILWFRVWUDWLRVFRXOGEHHYHQIRUWKHORZEHQHILWHVWLPDWHV$WWKHKLJK:73YDOXHEHQHILW FRVWUDWLRVFRXOGEH.  &RDVWDO]RQHV  3XEOLFRSLQLRQ (XURVWDW DQG

(172) ERWKUDQNWKHGHJUDGDWLRQRIFRDVWDO]RQHV ILUVWWKXV PDNLQJLW WKH PRVW LPSRUWDQW HQYLURQPHQWDO SUREOHP LQ (XURSH &RDVWDO ]RQH SROOXWLRQ LV DOVR UDQNHG ILUVW LQ WKH 8. QDWLRQDO VWXG\ 'R( 

(173) DQGWKLUGLQ'HQPDUN 

(174) 2YHUDOOWDNLQJDOOWKHVXUYH\VLQWRFRQVLGHUDWLRQWKHILQDOUDQNLQJDJDLQ VXJJHVWVWKDWFRDVWDO]RQHVGHJUDGDWLRQLVWRSSULRULW\.  ([SHUWRSLQLRQ *(3HWDO 

(175) KDYHDFDWHJRU\µVHDVDQGFRDVWDODUHDV¶ZKLFKZRXOGVHHPWRGLUHFWO\UHIOHFWWKLV HQYLURQPHQWDOLVVXH6HDDQGFRDVWDOSROOXWLRQLVWKHPDLQLVVXHWRJHWKHUZLWKWKHGHJUDGDWLRQRIFRDVWDO VFHQHU\DQGWKHRYHUH[SORLWDWLRQRIPDULQHUHVRXUFHV,WLVUDQNHGODVWRXWRIFDWHJRULHVZLWKDZRUOGVFRUHRI RQO\6XUSULVLQJO\6RXWK(XURSHDQVJDYHWKHVDPHVFRUHDVWKH1RUWKZLWKWKHUDQNLQJDQGZLWKWKH VFRUH 

(176) 2QHZRXOGKDYHH[SHFWHGDKLJKHUVFRUHEDVHGRQWKHGLUHFWFRQFHUQIRUWKHLUFRDVWDODUHDV.  %HQHILWHVWLPDWLRQ $PHWKRGRORJ\WRYDOXHFRDVWDO]RQHVLVJLYHQKRZHYHUILQDOYDOXDWLRQVDUHRPLWWHGGXHWRWKHODFNRIVXLWDEOH LQGLFDWRUVIRUFRDVWDO]RQHPDQDJHPHQWDQGWKHFRQVHTXHQWODFNRIVFHQDULRVDQGWDUJHWV7DEOHVXJJHVWV WKHW\SHRILQGLFDWRUVQHHGHGDQGYDOXDWLRQHVWLPDWHVUHTXLUHGIRUIXWXUHUHVHDUFKLQWRWKHYDOXDWLRQRIFRDVWDO ]RQHGHJUDGDWLRQ.

Referenties

GERELATEERDE DOCUMENTEN

gel synthesis for achieving good dispersion of W species in the silica matrix, high surface area.. This is consistent with literature reports that show

Based on our fi ndings, we hypothesise a set of parental style factors that may contribute to the development of self-regulatory learning skills, to be investi gated in

Based on the lower costs of debt and lower costs of financial distress for larger firms, this study expected a positive effect of Size on the relationship between leverage and firm

The first two are policing functions, needed to make sure that PCN- packets admitted into the PCN-domain belong to a flow that has been admitted and to ensure that the

Enhanced fuel distribution Cookstove subsidy Biodigester subsidy Target scenarios No traditional cookstoves Modern fuels Electric cooking 2050 Baseline Policy scenarios.. Enhanced

De RIVM-meetwaarden voor totaal-alfa in ventilatielucht verschillen niet significant van de waarden in buitenlucht die door RIVM met een high volume sampler wekelijks

De totale fout in de totaal alfa en totaal-bèta-activiteitsconcentratie in luchtstof is samengesteld uit een telfout van beide deelpreparaten, een kalibratiefout, een

De in dit rapport onderzochte belevingsonderzoeken rond de regionale luchthavens maken duidelijk dat de in deze onderzoeken vastgestelde geluidhinder niet direct vergeleken kan